Keeping Calm on the Tourism Roller-Coaster: Resident Attitudes and Perceptions of Social Impacts over Time

Abstract

The increase in international visitation to Iceland between 2010 and 2018 led to concern that the number of visitors superseded perceived social, cultural, and environmental sustainability. However, when international tourism arrivals collapsed during the COVID-19 pandemic the agenda shifted from responding to overtourism to dealing with undertourism and recovery from recession where demand falls far below supply. In 2023, two years after the lowest arrivals in 2021, international tourism rebounded to levels close to its pre-pandemic peak. This case of rapid rise, fall and resurgence of international tourism arrivals begs the question of whether resident perceptions of and attitudes toward tourism in their daily environment changed or remained stable through the roller coaster ride. How resilient are they? We address this question through a review of data sourced from longitudinal mixed-method research conducted from 2014 to 2023 on resident perceptions of and attitudes toward tourism in Iceland as a measure of social impact. The results demonstrate that in Iceland, resident attitudes remained stable during the swing from tourism growth to a sudden recession, showing strong capacity for social resilience. The mixed-method approach uncovered important distinctions in resident perceptions and attitudes at the local community level and, due to the longitudinal nature of the data, offers a unique opportunity to investigate how residents relate to the swinging fortunes of tourism development.